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The rebound strength is insufficient, and the trend of natural rubber is bumpy

since April 11, after a month or so of decline, rubber has stabilized at 30000 yuan/ton, and fluctuated for a long time

from the perspective of supply and demand, we can notice several basic facts: on the supply side, the supply of natural rubber is relatively stable in a short period of time, because the growth of natural rubber requires a long cycle, and it usually takes 5 to 7 years from planting to tapping. It usually changes due to the weather. For example, excessive rainfall will affect rubber cutting and transportation, thus affecting short-term supply changes. In terms of demand, since 65% of natural rubber is used for tire manufacturing, and the demand for natural rubber depends on the change of tire demand, the rise and fall of the automotive industry is of great significance to natural rubber

2011 saw difficulties in the development of the automotive industry. Due to the gradual withdrawal of preferential policies such as automobile going to the countryside, purchase tax preference and trade in, China's automobile sales have also stepped back into the faltering ranks. In April, the automobile sales volume was 1.552 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%. Car sales in early May were not optimistic

if the car sales in April are subdivided, a basic conclusion can be drawn that the sales of passenger cars maintain growth (both commercial and passenger cars), but the sales of passenger cars decline seriously. The conclusion we can draw here is that in general, the passenger transport demand is difficult to be affected periodically by the policy, and it will show a relatively stable upward trend. The demand for freight transport is different. It is greatly affected by macro policy regulation. As long as the economic situation is bad, the demand for freight transport will decline significantly, and the sales of trucks will also decline at the same time

due to the need to control inflation, China's central bank implemented a tight monetary policy in 2011, raised the deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rate several times. In addition, it also restricts the loan issuance of commercial banks through various means. From the perspective of the enterprise, the domestic capital is in a very tight situation at present. This is undoubtedly unfavorable to the economic operation. From this perspective, it is not difficult for us to understand why the sales volume of trucks is 7 During the lifting process of the pendulum, there are obstacles that will fall back by a large margin. In fact, the freight volume is also a barometer of macro-economy

from a macroeconomic perspective, the situation of controlling inflation this year is still very urgent. In March and April, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 5.4% and 5.3% year-on-year respectively. It is not very likely that the central bank will adopt a policy shift in the near future. This may mean that the central government will control inflation at the cost of economic growth in the short term. Under such a policy premise, domestic freight demand may be affected in a wide range, and then transmitted downward to tires and natural rubber. A very basic fact emerged before our eyes. In the foreseeable months, the demand for rubber is not optimistic

in different cycles, when we look at a problem, we will get different conclusions. As for the automobile industry, from a long-term perspective, we can certainly believe that China's automobile sales will show stable growth when the rate is ≥ 0.05%fs/s. It is only in the process of growth that some medium - and short-term factors will interfere with it. Similarly, the stability of supply will be disturbed by short-term factors. The early floods in southern Thailand caused a large rebound in the price of rubber. The recent rainfall amplification in northern and central Thailand is undoubtedly an important reason for the finished product inspection and single 1 material index test of suitable industrial and mining enterprises that contributed to the rise of rubber price on the morning of the 19th. However, in fact, the main rubber production area in Thailand is in the south, and the rainfall in the North has little impact on the overall output. Therefore, after exploring 32330 yuan/ton in the rubber price, the price fell again

Tianjiao, as a characteristic of agricultural products, has a shelf life, which determines that although it is popular with funds, its price operation should closely follow the control of supply and demand. It cannot be stored in a warehouse for decades like metal, thus changing the relationship between supply and demand through capital. Therefore, under the condition that there is no fundamental change in supply and the downstream demand performance continues to be sluggish, the future trend of Tianjiao is not optimistic for the time being

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